Should we underestimate or overestimate?

Before we get started with what influences our estimations, we should probably take a look at the definitions of the vocabulary. It can get confusing from time to time. Underestimate is an antonym of overestimating. Overestimate is an antonym of underestimate. Well, that was easy, now that we have that out of the way … Just kidding. That definition probably did not help at all, if you don´t already know the definitions. Overestimate is to expect too highly while underestimate is to expect too little. At the core of this question is should we expect more or less. Normally when we ask this question is when we meet someone new, but over- and underestimation can also be applied to day-to-day situations as well. Should I set high expectations or should I set low expectations? It is certainly a complex question and this certainly won´t have a straightforward answer.

People

Let´s being with our own bias. As humans, we like to believe that we are not biased and don´t judge people based on their looks. Hate to be the one that breaks it to you, but we have all done this. It is nothing to be proud of but it is nothing to be ashamed of either. As mentioned bias is part of our subconscious that we can´t get rid of. We subconsciously may already judge the person based on personal experience and stereotypes. “Our brains predict the outcomes of our actions based on what we´ve already experienced, not what is most likely to be true. Leaving us with a less accurate view of the world and shaping our realities into what we already expect.” This phenomenon is called the conformation bias and in my opinion, this applies to estimations as well. We expect something from people that are not based on facts; therefore, some people can surprise you. At the same time, we are more likely to perceive certain things that confirm our biases and ignore the obvious. Now you may think what does that have to do with over-or underestimating people. According to the conformation bias, we are already estimating people´s potential just by looking at them. This could lead to over-and underestimation.

Personally, I love it when people underestimate me. However, at the same time, I hate it. When people underestimate me I think, it is great that I can do something to impress people, but at the same time, I am slightly offended that people didn´t expect that or did not expect more. Besides, I believe that underestimating is also a weakness that could be exploited. The same can be said for overestimation. When people overestimate me, I would be honoured that they have such high hopes for me and I just disappointed them. At the same time, I am thinking that they should have known better than to overestimate me. It is like a seesaw. On the one hand, there are benefits, but on the other hand, there is a disadvantage. One should find the perfect balance between overestimation and underestimation to achieve a not so biased impression. However, we are imperfect, so don´t expect yourself or others to do it perfectly. This is me telling you to underestimate yourself and others. Is this a good thing? I could have also told you to expect perfect results every time. You would probably be proud, but then the disappointing results come.  I believe it is easier for me to split it into a table. 

	Overestimate	Underestimate
Better Results	As expected	Amazed (Better than I thought)
Worse Results	Disappointed (sad)	Kinda saw it coming (not sad)

However, this table of scenarios cannot be applied to every scenario, since each table with outcomes and consequences are depending on the situations and beginnings.

Things

As mentioned above, one can also over- and underestimate day-to-day situations. Like “should I get my hopes up about that thing?” If you aim high you can be disappointed, but if you don´t aim high you may not reach full potential. Which leads to the original question should I underestimate or overestimate. If you overestimate someone, the only thing that could happen is that you will be disappointed if the high expectations are not met. What if the opposite happens and you underestimate. The person you underestimated may pleasantly surprise you and that can make you happy. However, what if you underestimated the complexity of a computer program for example. You underestimated the complexity and therefore have to constantly reprogram since there are a few aspects that you have not accounted for; that just takes time and efforts, which can be frustrating. However, if you overestimated and planned the computer program code thoroughly before you started programming; this may make everything easier, but you have just spent time for irrelevant things since theory and practice are often different.

Ourselves

However, it is not only scenarios and other people that we over-or underestimate. We also judge ourselves. Should I overestimate my potential or should I underestimate it? We are terrible at evaluating ourselves accurately. Normally we tend to do one of two things, we either overestimate ourselves and think we are awesome or we underestimate ourselves and don´t think we are good enough. Often time’s people prefer to underestimate themselves, otherwise, they may be perceived as narcissistic and condescending. Other time´s people overestimate themselves since they believe they are the best and no one can beat them. This is common enough for psychologist to research and name it. For those who don´t know this. This is called the Dunning–Kruger effect.

Caution: Some people who don´t have skills tend to overrate their skills. They are the people who either are narcissistic or who have no idea what they are doing wrong. People with beginner-level skill, tend to make mistakes, but their incompetence (and I don´t mean it in a bad way, but just that they don´t know) prevent them from spotting their mistake. Therefore they keep on believing that they did nothing wrong and there is not much more to learn. Which leads them to repeat that mistake over and over again, while not getting better at what they are doing.

There is something about this quote by Einstein that I just love “the more I learn, the more I realize I don´t know.” That is what is preventing beginners from learning and intermediate to believe that they are good at something. People with intermediate-level skill tend to have less confidence in their skills since they know enough to know what they don´t know. Which is honestly a shame sometimes. People who deserve recognition for their work and abilities undermine themselves so that no one can see how great they are. They just believe that their work is bad and no one should see it. The key thing that is necessary is lacking for these kinds of people. Confidence. We all want to show off our work, but we don´t want to seem too arrogant, attention-seeking or pushy.

Experts have the opposite problem. They know enough to know what they don´t know, but they assume that everyone else also knows enough to know what they do not know. Experts are not limited by themselves, but they are limited by everyone else in their opinion. They don´t see how amazing they are and assume that they are normal. It is hard to believe that we can do something that others can´t. Some don´t believe that they are special since they assume their knowledge is common. We compare ourselves with others, but over-and/or underestimate them, most of the time. Therefore, over-and underestimation is such a problem for many.

To prevent oneself from over-or underestimating oneself one should always ask for advice. Get things from a new perspective. Some beginners never improve, since they don´t know what they can improve. This is your chance to learn. You can ask an expert for an expert opinion, but for beginners, a friend might just suffice. It may be hard to hear everything that you are doing wrong and sometimes depressing, that one is not good enough. However, ask yourself do you want to improve or stay a beginner forever. I, for one, try out many hobbies, but some of them just don´t interest me, so I do not pursue them. However, for other hobbies that I find interesting and beneficial, I continue to pursue, because I want to get better. Another thing is that you should keep learning. The more we know the more we know what we don´t know. For me, learning is a good distraction from the depressing news and awful people who ruined my day.

Conclusion

Therefore, over-and underestimating yourself, people and things is an easy thing to do. There is no right or wrong in this dilemma. Overestimating has its benefits and disadvantages and underestimating has its benefits and disadvantages. Depending on what you want to achieve you can choose to either overestimate or underestimate. To make it easier to know if you would rather want to overestimate or underestimate, you could always make a table like the one above to reveal the consequences of your actions to make it more understandable and easier to make a decision. If you are lucky then your estimation is 100% correct, but that is rarely the case. Therefore, choose to overestimate or underestimate depending on the situation, what you want to achieve and what your previous experience is. There is no right or wrong when it comes to over-or underestimating. Nevertheless, the one thing that you should remember is that we all make mistakes. The only question is will you learn from them or let them burden you.